Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc92e…c8bf politics 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$8
politics 30% $0
other 15% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 7% +$2
crypto 5% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.7% -7.1% 29% 14% -7.2%
≤30d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 11% -7.4%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.5% 43% 7% -7.7%
all 50 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -8.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.93 per $1 lost it wins $5.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage286d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $33 +$5 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $32 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $29 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $5 $0 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 27 $31 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 26 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $12 $0 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $6 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $3 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 57¢ $35 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $4 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $28 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 41h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $35 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $34 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $34 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records