Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc930…8b60 crypto 282 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,347 (+10%) realized +$2,348 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate56%157W / 123L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$47
sports 16% +$2,300
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 92 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 280 -40.9% -46.5% 56% 1% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 1% -0.5%
10% -51.7% 1% -10.0%
15% -56.3% 1% -18.7%
20% -60.6% 1% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -61% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$0 · ×1494.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1955.85 per $1 lost it wins $1955.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2,348
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses157 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)280 / 282
History coverage150d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $27 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $29 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $28 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $28 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $28 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $27 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 98¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.09 · official $33.09 (match) · 640 history records