Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

C9 0xc931…c416 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$183 (+1%) realized +$321 · open −$138

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip

Net edge-58%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,903per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$10,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-56.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%
≤30d	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%
≤90d	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%
all	2	-52.0%	-56.5%	0%	0%	-15.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.5%	0%	-15.5%
10%	-60.7%	0%	-23.6%
15%	-64.5%	0%	-31.0%
20%	-68.0%	0%	-37.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$117 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage

Net worth$10,678

Realized+$321

Unrealized−$138

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage161d

Avg bet$3,903

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$6,040	$6,105	+$64 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$4,775	$4,573	−$202 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$3,415	−$135	-4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14?	Jan 13	$99	−$99	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1,029	1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1,135	1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,000	10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2,972	19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2,212	2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2,145	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4,910	4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1,207	6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,208	7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$1,214	7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$6	36d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$967	36d
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14?	BUY Yes	44¢	$99	161d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,677.74 · official $10,677.74 (match) · 50 history records