Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc932…7277 world 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,931 (+8%) realized +$2,294 · open +$637
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%90W / 48L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$483
7 days+$1,181
14 days+$887
30 days+$1,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2,547
politics 24% −$1,008
other 14% +$784
tech 6% −$56
economics 4% −$2
crypto 1% +$607
culture 1% −$33
sports 1% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +35.1% +22.2% 93% 80% +17.8%
≤30d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 62% 51% +6.7%
≤90d 68 -5.1% -14.1% 60% 53% +1.7%
all 138 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 54% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 54% -2.8%
10% -16.6% 35% -12.1%
15% -24.7% 22% -20.6%
20% -32.1% 11% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$90 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$3,417
Realized+$2,294
Unrealized+$637
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses90 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)138 / 154
History coverage145d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 52¢ 88¢ $600 $1,017 +$417 (+69%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 84¢ $300 $368 +$68 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 78¢ $320 $314 −$6 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 73¢ 95¢ $199 $259 +$60 (+30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $236 $246 +$10 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 86¢ 91¢ $172 $182 +$10 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $124 $174 +$50 (+40%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $160 $167 +$7 (+4%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $166 $161 −$5 (-3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 39¢ 48¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 54¢ 61¢ $54 $61 +$7 (+12%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 15¢ $28 $15 −$13 (-46%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-76%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 73¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $400 +$92 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $90 +$110 +122%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $199 +$239 +120%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$42 +85%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $571 +$324 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $265 +$115 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $292 +$108 +37%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $171 +$19 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $312 +$88 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $323 +$77 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $290 +$28 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $488 −$264 -54%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $355 +$74 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $300 +$117 +39%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $187 +$13 +7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $182 +$18 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $370 +$56 +15%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $519 −$318 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $100 −$34 -34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $511 +$607 +119%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $250 −$29 -12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $460 +$63 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $106 −$106 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 30 $379 +$67 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $600 +$109 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $50 +$49 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $250 +$4 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $50 −$16 -32%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $122 −$22 -18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 22 $80 −$31 -39%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 22 $100 −$33 -33%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 22 $100 −$31 -31%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 22 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $201 +$21 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 11 $300 +$111 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 03 $400 +$116 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 29 $200 +$24 +12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 28 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 28 $271 +$69 +26%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $165 +$14 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 22 $200 +$80 +40%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 20 $200 +$85 +43%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $325 +$46 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $50 +$10 +20%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $727 +$82 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $492 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 59¢ $34 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 59¢ $202 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $320 37h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $152 3d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 3d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 83¢ $166 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 74¢ $148 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $256 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $189 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $256 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $172 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $59 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $124 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $109 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $74 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $429 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,416.86 · official $3,420.41 (match) · 444 history records