Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc935…32b1 politics 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$927per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$35
other 7% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$941) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$927
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $911 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $913 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,849 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $915 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $929 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $928 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,884 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $937 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $947 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $947 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,898 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $951 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $910 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $911 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $913 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $914 15d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $912 16d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $914 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $916 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 24d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 26d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $917 28d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $918 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $922 31d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $923 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $919 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $920 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $924 35d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $925 36d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 37d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 38d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $924 39d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $926 40d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $928 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records