Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc936…c08a crypto 424 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,181 (-9%) realized −$5,081 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%130W / 291L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$105
30 days−$1,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$3,382
sports 28% −$1,027
other 18% −$2,573
world 0% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 62 -15.6% -23.6% 35% 35% -19.9%
≤90d 383 -21.7% -29.1% 31% 31% -21.0%
all 421 -20.3% -27.9% 31% 30% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -21.1%
10% -34.8% 30% -28.7%
15% -41.1% 30% -35.6%
20% -46.9% 29% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$96 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$5,081
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses130 / 291
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions3
Markets (closed)421 / 424
History coverage172d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 26¢ $80 $40 −$40 (-50%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 11¢ $60 $18 −$43 (-71%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 3¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $669 −$654 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 27 $145 −$131 -90%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $345 −$200 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $403 +$428 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $171 −$166 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $225 +$603 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $141 +$178 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 27 $219 −$214 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $302 −$288 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 27 $239 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $190 −$183 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 27 $224 −$218 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $209 +$248 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 27 $218 +$265 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $304 −$274 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $280 −$270 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 27 $228 +$180 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $383 −$282 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 27 $292 +$499 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 27 $264 −$253 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $310 +$449 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $929 −$290 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $289 −$279 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 27 $249 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $208 +$286 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 27 $260 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $156 +$181 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $241 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $218 −$208 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 27 $286 +$152 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $311 +$241 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 27 $363 −$356 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $70 −$65 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $278 +$273 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $183 −$138 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 27 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $254 +$184 +72%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1,696 −$173 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $289 −$283 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $361 −$170 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 27 $150 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 27 $169 −$163 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 27 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 27 $189 −$30 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $158 +$180 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 27 $130 +$146 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 27 $188 −$181 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $19 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $81 2h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 9d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 32¢ $101 9d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $14 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $42 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 29d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $145 29d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 29d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $344 29d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $654 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $827 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $172 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $319 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $62 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $42 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.39 · official $59.39 (match) · 2264 history records