Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc93a…ecbb sports 52 markets active 3h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-1%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$8
14 days−$42
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$171
world 3% −$99
other 2% −$17
finance 0% +$17
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 23% 23% -6.5%
≤30d 15 -10.3% -18.9% 20% 20% -24.0%
≤90d 49 -11.4% -19.9% 43% 35% -7.6%
all 49 -11.4% -19.9% 43% 35% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 35% -7.6%
10% -27.5% 31% -16.4%
15% -34.5% 22% -24.5%
20% -41.0% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$117 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage69d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$32 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$100 +982%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $29 +$5 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $4 +$1 +30%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $441 −$435 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $351 +$137 +39%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $261 −$255 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $379 +$310 +82%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $200 +$40 +20%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $369 −$235 -64%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $847 −$592 -70%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $1,029 +$229 +22%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $681 +$285 +42%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $459 −$158 -34%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $474 −$18 -4%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $422 −$358 -85%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $723 +$69 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $209 −$149 -71%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $212 −$194 -92%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1,136 +$61 +5%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1,443 +$56 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $304 −$156 -51%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $826 +$444 +54%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $454 −$422 -93%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $2,090 +$75 +4%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $548 +$801 +146%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $119 +$152 +128%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $102 +$45 +44%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $289 +$118 +41%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $130 −$21 -16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 30 $56 −$27 -48%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $26 +$7 +26%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $32 +$17 +54%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 23 $100 −$50 -50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 18 $355 −$23 -6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 76¢ $17 7h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $15 22h
Spain leading at halftime? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will BUY 52¢ $33 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 53¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 42h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $10 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $29 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $13 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 27¢ $5 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 59¢ $5 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 44¢ $4 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 44¢ $36 35d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 48¢ $102 35d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $152 35d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $152 35d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves $5 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves $41 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves $51 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 13¢ $41 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 25¢ $41 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.75 · official $24.75 (match) · 203 history records