Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc93b…665b other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,101 (+65%) realized +$4,897 · open −$796
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,047per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$3,824
crypto 6% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -21.0% -28.6% 40% 40% +74.2%
all 5 -21.0% -28.6% 40% 40% +74.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 40% +74.2%
10% -35.4% 40% +57.5%
15% -41.6% 40% +42.3%
20% -47.4% 20% +28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +92% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,930 vs −$368 · ×7.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized+$4,897
Unrealized−$796
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,047
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $1,106 $309 −$796 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,032 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 22 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 22 $355 +$140 +39%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 22 $3,683 +$5,720 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,032 43d
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,106 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $495 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $19 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.41 · official $309.41 (match) · 48 history records