Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc93e…8ac9 tech 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 51% +$4
world 26% $0
other 15% −$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 5 -10.6% -19.1% 60% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 67% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.38 per $1 lost it wins $4.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage152d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Jun 16 $18 $0 -2%
Trump out as President by April 30? Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 12 $22 $0 +1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 30 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 19 above $155? Jan 26 $50 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $23 67d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $25 67d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar SELL Yes 0¢ $0 82d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY Yes 0¢ $1 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? SELL No 29¢ $17 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? BUY No 28¢ $17 83d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $16 96d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $17 96d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $33 130d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $32 130d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 130d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 99¢ $22 130d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 137d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $52 140d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 19 above $155? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 144d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 151d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $33 152d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 94¢ $32 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $39.50 (match) · 34 history records