Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc93f…a95e other 33 markets active 4d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-4%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$6
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$107
sports 35% +$115
crypto 14% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.2% -33.3% 33% 33% -26.5%
≤30d 32 +12.4% +1.7% 41% 38% -15.3%
≤90d 32 +12.4% +1.7% 41% 38% -15.3%
all 32 +12.4% +1.7% 41% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 38% -15.3%
10% -8.0% 34% -23.4%
15% -16.9% 31% -30.8%
20% -25.1% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage14d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$11 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$10 +134%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 +$15 +712%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$35 +343%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$7 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $79 +$70 +88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$62 +203%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$19 +77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 32¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records