Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc940…4d39 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,135 (-27%) realized −$17,842 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 52L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$696per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$20,883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,120
7 days+$515
14 days−$1,884
30 days−$1,760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$13,538
sports 12% +$962
finance 10% −$5,633
crypto 0% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% +2.3%
≤30d 50 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 44% -24.0%
≤90d 78 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 35% -48.5%
all 83 -14.2% -22.3% 37% 34% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 34% -48.9%
10% -29.8% 29% -53.8%
15% -36.6% 29% -58.3%
20% -42.8% 25% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$466 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$20,883
Realized−$17,842
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions12
Markets (closed)83 / 97
History coverage518d
Avg bet$696
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7,873 $7,128 −$745 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4,500 $4,805 +$305 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3,000 $3,047 +$47 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2,350 $2,509 +$159 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,001 $1,959 −$41 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $651 $636 −$15 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $172 −$2 -1%
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- Jun 20 $428 +$798 +186%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$105 +103%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$154 -76%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $203 −$97 -48%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -37%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$39 -39%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 +$148 +142%
Exact Score: UD Almería 0 - 1 Málaga CF? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$117 +58%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$54 +54%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$91 +45%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$251 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $207 −$204 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $493 −$490 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 +$109 +67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $198 −$101 -51%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,066 −$2,032 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $136 −$132 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,642 −$1,615 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $556 +$207 +37%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $305 −$18 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $307 +$590 +192%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$23 -22%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $202 +$136 +67%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $103 +$36 +35%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $992 +$10 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $222 −$39 -18%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $441 +$225 +51%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $380 +$302 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $407 −$400 -98%
Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $171 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $172 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 17¢ $51 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 20h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $107 20h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $62 20h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $233 20h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 20h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 20h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 21h
Exact Score: UD Almería 0 - 1 Málaga CF? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 21h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $203 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $320 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 49¢ $102 35h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 35h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 35h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,882.94 · official $20,932.95 (match) · 422 history records