Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C9 0xc948…314b politics 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$228 (-0%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,744per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$23
14 days−$134
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$148
other 35% +$104
sports 8% −$183
culture 2% −$18
world 2% −$17
economics 2% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 +0.4% -9.1% 9% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 115 -9.0% -17.7% 8% 6% -10.0%
all 151 +1.0% -8.6% 15% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 12% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 11% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 11% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,514) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$12 · ×4.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,744
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $265 $265 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $179 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $225 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,124 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $2,270 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,083 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,315 −$8 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,884 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,545 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,165 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $704 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,281 −$5 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,131 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,307 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $44 +$59 +134%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $6,754 −$9 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $6,350 −$7 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $36 +$53 +146%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $715 +$1 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,643 −$4 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $2,334 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,967 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $54 +$29 +55%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $4,488 −$5 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $2,934 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,915 −$2 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $69 +$64 +93%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,846 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 17h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $218 19h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $273 19h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 21h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $225 25h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 27h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 43h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 44h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 44h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 46h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $264 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $264 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,271 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,273 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,151 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,153 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,046 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.10 · official $445.10 (match) · 552 history records