Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc948…7f7e crypto 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$55 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate80%127W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$45
14 days−$62
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$2
sports 17% −$36
other 10% −$13
world 3% −$6
politics 3% −$5
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 13% -23.9%
≤30d 158 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 12% -16.0%
≤90d 158 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 12% -16.0%
all 158 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 12% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 12% -16.0%
10% -17.9% 8% -24.1%
15% -25.8% 7% -31.4%
20% -33.1% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses127 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)158 / 183
History coverage22d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 24? No 93¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? No 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 24? No 93¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 87¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 56¢ 80¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+43%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? No 96¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 92¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? No 96¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 72¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? No 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? No 91¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $6 $0 +7%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -77%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -88%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 15? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +226%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $7 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Argentina vs Aus Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -58%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $4 $0 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +77%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +171%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$7 +365%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 92¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $9 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $4 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY No 93¢ $6 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $10 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $7 17h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 92¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $3 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $4 25h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 96¢ $2 28h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $4 31h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Argentina vs Aus BUY No 96¢ $2 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $9 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $4 37h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $10 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $4 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $6 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.23 · official $90.23 (match) · 375 history records