Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc94e…f946 world 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,897 (+6%) realized +$8,968 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%58W / 19L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,725per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$15,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$342
14 days−$2,598
30 days+$853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$7,454
other 19% −$2,104
crypto 12% +$999
finance 8% −$27
sports 4% +$1,639
politics 2% +$366
tech 1% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 33% 17% -12.0%
≤30d 31 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 29% -8.0%
≤90d 63 -3.8% -12.9% 75% 43% -8.3%
all 77 -0.4% -9.9% 75% 47% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 47% -4.0%
10% -18.5% 19% -13.2%
15% -26.4% 5% -21.6%
20% -33.6% 3% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$600 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$15,524
Realized+$8,968
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses58 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)77 / 92
History coverage576d
Avg bet$1,725
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,982 $2,173 +$191 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2,092 $1,729 −$363 (-17%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,626 +$126 (+8%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $1,500 $1,480 −$20 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,344 $1,326 −$18 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,307 $1,301 −$6 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,098 $1,141 +$43 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,073 $821 −$253 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $642 $784 +$142 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $556 $562 +$6 (+1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $500 $526 +$26 (+5%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $500 $522 +$22 (+4%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $503 −$30 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4,200 −$32 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6,000 −$572 -10%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $504 −$76 -15%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 11 $402 +$5 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 09 $664 +$363 +55%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $223 −$217 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 03 $2,500 +$461 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $850 +$58 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,005 +$42 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$124 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,090 +$50 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,650 +$108 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $2,000 +$80 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,099 +$198 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $5,900 +$866 +15%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $704 +$121 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $6,000 +$1,045 +17%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $1,003 +$48 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $1,500 +$171 +11%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $4 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,900 +$181 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $700 +$26 +4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 26 $564 −$137 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $300 +$27 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $1,700 +$178 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 23 $1,379 +$150 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $1,000 +$12 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17? May 18 $907 +$104 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1,000 +$136 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 01 $1,000 +$112 +11%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $1,000 +$136 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $3,500 +$565 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 29 $2,000 +$365 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $2,000 −$395 -20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 27 $7,000 +$1,105 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 25 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,500 +$1,186 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $2,000 −$89 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 18 $300 −$286 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $1,491 +$509 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $1,000 +$70 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $1,000 +$378 +38%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 08 $1,000 +$61 +6%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 08 $1,000 +$245 +24%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-Ap Apr 07 $1,000 +$220 +22%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 04 $2,000 +$59 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $473 7m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4,168 7m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $572 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $661 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,103 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,128 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,342 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,380 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,032 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,144 4d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5,428 4d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $428 4d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $407 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4,000 5d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 91¢ $501 9d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 9d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $504 9d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $503 9d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $503 9d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $502 9d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $502 9d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $501 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $500 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $503 10d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1,007 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 64¢ $654 11d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 21¢ $223 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $1,000 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,524.10 · official $15,524.10 (match) · 230 history records