Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc94f…1e94 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,495 (-74%) realized −$1,496 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$1,550
14 days−$1,525
30 days−$1,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$1,469
other 17% −$100
sports 6% +$24
crypto 4% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -39.1% -44.9% 17% 17% -81.6%
≤30d 61 -25.8% -32.9% 18% 18% -80.3%
≤90d 61 -25.8% -32.9% 18% 18% -80.3%
all 61 -25.8% -32.9% 18% 18% -80.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 18% -80.3%
10% -39.3% 18% -82.2%
15% -45.2% 18% -83.9%
20% -50.6% 15% -85.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$35 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$1,496
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage158d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 +$70 +327%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $68 +$26 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $34 +$14 +42%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$9 -86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jun 20 $280 −$280 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $69 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $68 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.79 · official $65.79 (match) · 139 history records