Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc950…0e82 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-3%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%66W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$132
other 3% +$18
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 54% -13.8%
≤30d 101 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 54% -13.8%
≤90d 101 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 54% -13.8%
all 101 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 54% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 54% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 43% -22.1%
15% -28.6% 27% -29.6%
20% -35.6% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses66 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage5d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$8 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records