Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc950…9420 weather 886 markets active 7h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$249 (+5%) realized +$235 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%247W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$303
14 days−$85
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$79
other 1% −$15
sports 0% +$24
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -30.1% -36.8% 13% 12% -30.6%
≤30d 525 -12.4% -20.7% 22% 20% -13.5%
≤90d 882 -1.8% -11.1% 28% 27% -8.9%
all 882 -1.8% -11.1% 28% 27% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 27% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 23% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$235
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses247 / 635
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)882 / 886
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $4 $25 +$21 (+558%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$12 +1116%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$4 +238%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$44 +802%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$17 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$23 +2104%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 17 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$7 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$8 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$12 +1116%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 16 $4 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 16 $3 +$7 +193%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$30 +853%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 1¢ $1 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 29¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $11 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.10 · official $32.10 (match) · 3500 history records