Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc951…eaa7 crypto 129 markets active 13h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%76W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 41% -16.5%
≤30d 129 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 40% -12.9%
≤90d 129 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 40% -12.9%
all 129 +0.8% -8.8% 59% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -12.9%
10% -17.5% 33% -21.2%
15% -25.5% 27% -28.8%
20% -32.8% 22% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses76 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.80 · official $4.80 (match) · 462 history records