Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc952…3c89 sports 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 725d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,201 (-17%) realized −$2,200 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$2,290
politics 19% $0
economics 5% −$1
other 3% −$40
culture 0% −$9
crypto 0% $0
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 44 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 36% -33.4%
all 93 -16.4% -24.4% 40% 34% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 34% -26.1%
10% -31.6% 29% -33.2%
15% -38.2% 25% -39.6%
20% -44.3% 18% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$74 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

725d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$2,200
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 56
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage725d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $138 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $234 −$104 -44%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $101 −$86 -85%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $246 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $61 +$32 +52%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $29 +$18 +62%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $36 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $30 −$14 -47%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $56 +$5 +8%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $69 +$31 +46%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $88 +$16 +18%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$32 +54%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Minnesota United FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $696 −$688 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $76 −$75 -98%
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $298 −$293 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $51 −$3 -5%
Frosinone Calcio vs. Carrarese Calcio: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $200 +$60 +30%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $108 −$35 -32%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $112 −$110 -99%
Venezia FC vs. Empoli FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $109 +$44 +40%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $106 +$77 +73%
Birmingham City FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $114 +$84 +74%
Norwich City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $372 +$53 +14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $192 −$47 -24%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $181 −$31 -17%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $112 −$21 -19%
Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $146 −$86 -59%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $120 −$120 -100%
SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $118 −$24 -20%
Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $100 −$50 -50%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $106 −$31 -29%
Karlsruher SC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $64 −$4 -6%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $257 +$19 +8%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $22 +$25 +113%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: Both Teams to Apr 25 $34 −$6 -17%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $54 +$25 +47%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Júbilo Iwata vs. FC Gifu: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $61 +$29 +48%
Club Puebla vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $96 +$40 +42%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $100 −$10 -10%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 Apr 25 $50 −$1 -2%
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $110 +$105 +96%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) Mar 17 $268 +$144 +54%
Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5) Mar 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 Mar 16 $7 +$5 +72%
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 230.5 Mar 16 $459 −$459 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $140 11m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime $15 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 54¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $117 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $124 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $125 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $92 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 12¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes $39 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes $16 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $138 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $61 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $122 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $30 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $36 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes $29 8h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $109 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $29 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $2 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $26 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $12 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $18 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $31 9h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Execration 100¢ $100 11h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner SELL Execration 80¢ $80 11h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 57¢ $58 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.81 · official $136.81 (match) · 298 history records