Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C9 0xc954…0920 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,908 (+1%) realized +$1,907 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%33W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,685per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days+$37
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,459
politics 37% −$113
sports 11% +$538
world 3% −$6
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +4.5% -5.4% 13% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 102 -5.0% -14.1% 11% 6% -9.8%
all 138 +8.7% -1.6% 24% 17% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 17% -8.8%
10% -11.0% 17% -17.5%
15% -19.6% 16% -25.5%
20% -27.5% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,490) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$10 · ×8.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,649
Realized+$1,907
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses33 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,685
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $747 $747 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $468 $469 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $433 $434 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $2,490 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,875 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,508 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,530 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,749 −$5 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,119 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,649 −$6 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $82 +$76 +93%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,513 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $77 +$66 +86%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,091 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,856 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $621 +$3 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $3,514 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,233 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,526 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,963 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $5,010 −$6 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,022 −$5 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 11 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $1,688 −$3 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5,032 −$6 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $3,016 −$4 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $2,607 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $3,333 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $7,553 −$8 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $8,605 −$9 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $5,146 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $4,375 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $747 54m
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $875 24h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $876 26h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,179 47h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,181 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,180 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,182 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,182 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,183 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $433 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,611 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,614 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,506 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,509 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,518 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,520 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,586 9d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,588 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,628 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,631 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 10d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 10d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $82 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $891 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $892 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $556 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,648.76 · official $1,648.76 (match) · 494 history records