Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc955…b1e9 tech 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,102 (+21%) realized +$4,986 · open +$1,116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$953per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,256
14 days+$2,256
30 days+$2,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$9
other 32% +$3,044
politics 15% +$269
tech 7% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 100% +44.5%
≤30d 1 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 100% +44.5%
≤90d 1 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 100% +44.5%
all 12 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 25% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 25% +0.6%
10% -25.0% 17% -9.0%
15% -32.2% 17% -17.8%
20% -38.9% 8% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$141 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$4,729
Realized+$4,986
Unrealized+$1,116
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions18
Markets (closed)12 / 30
History coverage583d
Avg bet$953
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 39¢ 68¢ $671 $1,181 +$510 (+76%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 50¢ 71¢ $825 $1,160 +$335 (+41%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 11¢ 13¢ $600 $732 +$132 (+22%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 69¢ 96¢ $323 $449 +$126 (+39%)
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $400 $415 +$15 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 18¢ 26¢ $145 $211 +$66 (+45%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $150 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+4%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 99¢ $40 $114 +$74 (+186%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No 7¢ 5¢ $80 $55 −$25 (-31%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? No 5¢ 3¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-77%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $47 $6 −$41 (-88%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-87%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $23 $2 −$21 (-91%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $3,775 +$2,256 +60%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 09 $1,450 +$184 +13%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Feb 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 09 $4,177 +$276 +7%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 11 $3,557 −$33 -1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jan 11 $250 −$8 -3%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 02 $3,190 +$216 +7%
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? Jan 02 $2,480 +$67 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 21 $540 +$243 +45%
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 12 $1,680 −$486 -29%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Nov 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 70¢ $137 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $104 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $104 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No 23¢ $46 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $104 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 69¢ $134 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $207 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 70¢ $489 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 18¢ $21 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 18¢ $165 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $141 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 69¢ $132 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 29¢ $206 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 69¢ $101 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 69¢ $202 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 7¢ $21 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 42¢ $307 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 14¢ $103 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 42¢ $614 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 7¢ $62 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 5¢ $31 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 97¢ $277 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 95¢ $377 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 59¢ $161 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $47 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 94¢ $187 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $686 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 47¢ $138 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $417 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,729.33 · official $4,729.33 (match) · 153 history records