trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +2.5% | -7.2% | 67% | 0% | -5.4% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 45% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 38% | 0% | -7.6% |
| all | 25 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 52% | 0% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $58 | $58 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 19 | $116 | +$8 | +7% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 27 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $44 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 24 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 21 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 20 | $44 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 20 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 11 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 13 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Xavier vs. Butler | Mar 04 | $12 | −$1 | -8% |
| Colorado vs. Texas Tech | Mar 04 | $12 | $0 | +0% |