Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc95b…daa8 other 246 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 236L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 27% −$22
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$7
politics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage135d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $289 −$2 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $803 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $555 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $897 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $321 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $495 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $305 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $360 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $215 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $383 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $224 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $297 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $246 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 3h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 8h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 12h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 19h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 21h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 22h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 31h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 38h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 39h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 44h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 46h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1366 history records