Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C9 0xc95c…34f1 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate72%33W / 13L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$16
crypto 23% +$7
politics 10% +$14
sports 7% +$2
world 5% −$12
finance 3% +$8
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.8% +3.0% 50% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 8 +9.4% -1.0% 75% 38% -5.1%
≤90d 32 -1.2% -10.6% 62% 31% -4.7%
all 46 +0.9% -8.7% 72% 26% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 26% -5.0%
10% -17.5% 15% -14.1%
15% -25.4% 4% -22.4%
20% -32.7% 4% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)46 / 73
History coverage140d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $24 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 87¢ 97¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+37%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 83¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 71¢ 83¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $29 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 05 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $12 +$2 +19%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $11 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $19 +$6 +32%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $6 −$2 -30%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $7 $0 -5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $22 +$11 +50%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 13 $28 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 05 $31 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $4 $0 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $10 −$3 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 06 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 06 $15 $0 -1%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 06 $14 +$2 +17%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 +$5 +25%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $10 $0 +4%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 21 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 9? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $51 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Feb 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Feb 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 17 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Feb 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 12 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $11 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $14 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 71¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.66 · official $86.90 · 246 history records