Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc960…1c19 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$302 (+6%) realized +$350 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$474
14 days+$353
30 days+$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$655
other 30% −$201
crypto 3% −$123
weather 2% −$28
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.3% -1.1% 52% 41% +1.1%
≤30d 44 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 34% -2.9%
≤90d 44 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 34% -2.9%
all 44 +1.4% -8.2% 45% 34% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 34% -2.9%
10% -17.0% 32% -12.2%
15% -25.0% 25% -20.6%
20% -32.4% 23% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$65 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$350
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage9d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 56¢ 48¢ $356 $308 −$48 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $268 +$262 +98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $312 −$312 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $177 +$310 +175%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $300 −$123 -41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 +$360 +365%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $214 −$211 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $177 −$138 -78%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $107 −$73 -68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $296 +$203 +69%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $164 −$16 -10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $135 −$133 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 −$123 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $164 +$136 +83%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $194 +$109 +56%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $207 +$99 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $530 +$134 +25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$26 -53%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $34 +$1 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $39 −$24 -62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $61 +$17 +28%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $28 −$28 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $35 +$41 +119%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $32 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $41 −$4 -10%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $155 −$20 -13%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $51 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $87 +$58 +67%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $38 +$60 +159%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $44 −$20 -46%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $41 −$8 -20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 +$4 +24%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $18 −$12 -66%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $14 −$1 -4%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $77 −$76 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $19 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 57¢ $205 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $18 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $74 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $530 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $64 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $140 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $312 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $18 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $37 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $9 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $9 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $17 18h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $86 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $177 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $300 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $459 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 21¢ $5 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 21¢ $94 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $214 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 10¢ $39 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.10 · official $308.10 (match) · 159 history records