Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C9 0xc960…cbd0 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%26W / 26L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$20
other 19% $0
tech 7% −$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.2% -7.5% 70% 10% -8.3%
≤30d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 59% 12% -7.9%
≤90d 22 +2.3% -7.5% 55% 18% -7.3%
all 52 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 10% -7.9%
10% -17.3% 0% -16.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage452d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $62 +$8 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $45 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $51 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $46 +$5 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $28 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 04 $7 $0 +7%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will X buy TikTok? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 23 $10 −$2 -15%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 06 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $36 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $36 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.32 · official $45.33 (match) · 165 history records