Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc961…a153
crypto · 60 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$118 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses33 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage230d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 7 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? No 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? No 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$93 -92%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +112%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$24 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$26 -85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $66 +$27 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 May 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 15 $1 −$1 -75%
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 May 10 $5 +$1 +17%
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to Score May 10 $10 +$5 +46%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $40 +$12 +29%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Apr 29 $23 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 25 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 25 $13 +$4 +27%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 25 $11 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 25 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 21 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $41 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 20 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 18 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 17 $34 +$7 +21%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $31 +$3 +11%
Will Grupo Frontera perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 12 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% +$43
sports 24% −$74
crypto 22% −$23
politics 13% −$71
world 7% +$2
culture 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 41m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 6¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 4h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $32 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $15 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3d
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 30d
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 30d
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 30d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 35d
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 35d
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $15 35d
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 35d
CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 35d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 38d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 38d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 38d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 38d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $52 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.9% +7.6% 67% 67% -26.0%
≤30d 10 +24.0% +12.2% 70% 70% -24.8%
≤90d 16 +26.2% +14.2% 75% 75% -10.9%
all 53 -12.7% -21.0% 62% 45% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 45% -19.9%
10% -28.5% 30% -27.6%
15% -35.4% 21% -34.6%
20% -41.8% 11% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.73 · official $71.76 (match) · 144 history records