trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 80% | 50% | +11.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +11.5% | +0.8% | 82% | 47% | +4.3% |
| all | 17 | +11.5% | +0.8% | 82% | 47% | +4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.8% | 47% | +4.3% |
| 10% | -8.8% | 18% | -5.6% |
| 15% | -17.6% | 18% | -14.8% |
| 20% | -25.7% | 12% | -23.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 78¢ | $2,000 | $1,806 | −$194 (-10%) |
| No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | $349 | $264 | −$86 (-24%) |
| Trump on $250 bill this year? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $100 | $85 | −$15 (-15%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 1¢ | $1,657 | $16 | −$1,641 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 12 | $201 | −$201 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Jun 11 | $201 | −$201 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 08 | $1,507 | +$1,118 | +74% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $502 | +$81 | +16% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $502 | +$31 | +6% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | Jun 01 | $35 | +$7 | +21% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 29 | $502 | +$36 | +7% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | May 26 | $1,198 | +$470 | +39% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $1,005 | +$44 | +4% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | May 22 | $1,005 | +$163 | +16% |
| Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1,002 | −$303 | -30% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? | May 15 | $512 | +$40 | +8% |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | May 15 | $881 | +$91 | +10% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 13 | $845 | +$82 | +10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 11 | $1,370 | +$184 | +14% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | May 11 | $52 | +$92 | +178% |
| Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 | May 01 | $29 | +$6 | +21% |