Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc964…457e other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$20 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$4
other 28% −$6
politics 21% −$1
crypto 17% +$10
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 24% -8.1%
≤90d 20 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 20% -8.3%
all 21 -5.1% -14.1% 52% 19% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 19% -8.3%
10% -22.3% 5% -17.1%
15% -29.8% 5% -25.1%
20% -36.7% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage150d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $110 $110 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $66 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -15%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $77 +$7 +9%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 28 $56 −$4 -7%
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $69 −$8 -12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 +$9 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $102 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +144%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 23 $196 +$5 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 10AM ET Feb 27 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $111 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $66 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $83 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $1 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $84 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $52 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 13d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $71 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $77 13d
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 95¢ $3 13d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $1 13d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 84¢ $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $61 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $65 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $103 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $66 35d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 85¢ $9 35d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $102 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 45d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $195 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 88¢ $1 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 88¢ $1 52d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 89¢ $1 52d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.42 · official $256.43 (match) · 83 history records