Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc964…116b other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$18
politics 41% −$18
sports 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 130 -2.1% -11.4% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 140 -3.4% -12.6% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage111d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $344 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $301 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $226 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $284 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $204 +$1 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $701 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $249 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $285 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 17h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 17h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 18h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $44 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $44 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 18d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 20d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 22d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 22d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $204 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records