Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc966…1b44 crypto 62 markets active 5h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+5%) realized +$306 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%55W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 38% −$3
other 29% +$347
crypto 17% −$39
politics 17% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 46 -2.0% -11.3% 93% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 56 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 0% -10.4%
all 59 +0.3% -9.2% 93% 2% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -5.3%
10% -17.9% 2% -14.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -22.7%
20% -33.1% 2% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.77 per $1 lost it wins $7.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$306
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses55 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage137d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $2,503 −$3 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 23? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,111 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $2,500 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2,503 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.55 · official $43.55 (match) · 123 history records