Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc96c…6a98
world · 59 markets active 7h ago
0.0score
−$32,826 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21,267 · open −$78,976
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$186,428
Realized+$21,267
Unrealized−$78,976
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)49 / 59
History coverage603d
Avg bet$33,251
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 10 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5,949
14 days+$18,550
30 days+$23,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 83¢ 52¢ $160,373 $99,983 −$60,389 (-38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 84¢ $79,180 $69,152 −$10,027 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $19,666 $11,353 −$8,313 (-42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 82¢ 78¢ $6,098 $5,852 −$246 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 27¢ 21¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 56¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 69¢ 87¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $357 $0 −$357 (-100%)
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $366 $0 −$366 (-100%)
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $367 $0 −$367 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $4,565 $0 −$4,565 (-100%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $73,652 +$4,030 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $20,107 +$1,723 +9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $85,000 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $11,198 +$186 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $315,292 +$11,299 +4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $100,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $27,035 +$937 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $13,225 +$533 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $55,980 +$1,305 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $13,072 +$171 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $2,701 −$1,644 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $273 +$27 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $125,114 +$3,458 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $8,456 +$531 +6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $66,000 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $14,239 +$647 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $99,805 +$3,138 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $16,817 +$945 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $4,624 +$97 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $28,595 +$1,432 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $21,054 +$368 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 06 $67 +$13 +20%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $5,191 −$3,636 -70%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $357 −$357 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $28,019 +$541 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $174 +$104 +60%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $72 −$72 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $250 −$250 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Jan 08 $909 +$22 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Dec 08 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 08 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $491 +$509 +104%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 05 $367 −$367 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $4,565 −$4,565 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese Apr 29 $2,088 +$54 +3%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus Apr 29 $828 −$193 -23%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th Apr 29 $3,902 +$994 +26%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 Apr 29 $1,449 −$898 -62%
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary el Apr 29 $4,052 +$578 +14%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $4,950 +$1,987 +40%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Apr 29 $3,537 +$15,533 +439%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 29 $15,201 −$15,008 -99%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $1,659 −$848 -51%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $916 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 85% −$52,766
politics 14% +$1,326
other 1% +$190
economics 0% −$6,467
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $2,889 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 81¢ $2,933 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $50 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $110 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $117 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $168 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $1,730 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $5 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $5 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $46 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $71 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $29 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $71 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $146 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $46 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $7 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $390 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $79 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $248 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $13 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $1 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $1 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $40 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $20 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $100 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $6 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $1,020 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7,199 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,542 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.4% -4.7% 80% 20% -6.7%
≤30d 17 +115.3% +94.8% 76% 12% -7.1%
≤90d 27 +111.8% +91.7% 78% 15% -7.0%
all 49 +49.2% +35.0% 59% 18% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 18% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here +22.1% 14% -16.4%
15% +10.3% 12% -24.4%
20% -0.5% 10% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186,427.96 · official $186,427.39 (match) · 1516 history records