Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc96e…f1f9 other 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$399,770 (+22%) realized +$398,258 · open +$1,512
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%138W / 36L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$9,799per market
Trades / day86.4pace
Fees−$1,553est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$16,648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,175
7 days+$25,482
14 days+$114,660
30 days+$90,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$127,233
world 35% −$14,039
sports 20% +$115,223
crypto 9% +$16,272
politics 0% +$2,064
finance 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +5.9% -4.2% 80% 22% -2.2%
≤30d 149 +14.5% +3.6% 78% 31% -9.7%
≤90d 174 +16.4% +5.3% 79% 31% -1.7%
all 174 +16.4% +5.3% 79% 31% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 31% -1.7%
10% -4.8% 18% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -14.0% 14% -19.7%
20% -22.4% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$9,900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,927 vs −$8,240 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$16,648
Realized+$398,258
Unrealized+$1,512
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses138 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,553
Open positions9
Markets (closed)174 / 182
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$9,799
Trades / day86.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 55¢ $10,095 $10,788 +$693 (+7%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 92¢ $2,180 $3,052 +$872 (+40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,059 $1,002 −$57 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $894 $899 +$6 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $362 $345 −$17 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $278 $290 +$12 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $222 $217 −$5 (-2%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No 56¢ 95¢ $20 $33 +$14 (+69%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $22 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13,974 +$4,847 +35%
Jan Paul van Hecke: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4,763 +$2,561 +54%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 25 $79 $0 +0%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 25 $24 $0 +1%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 25 $127 $0 +0%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $8,125 +$49 +1%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $3,939 +$40 +1%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 25 $369 +$4 +1%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $28,866 +$32 +0%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $387 +$7 +2%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $123 +$1 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $6,904 +$6,633 +96%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $906 −$906 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $1,142 −$1,142 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $8,341 +$8 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32,184 +$65,281 +203%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9,039 +$16,070 +178%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $147 +$4 +3%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $908 +$1 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $8,003 +$42 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9,127 −$8,851 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $3,306 +$4 +0%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Jun 23 $512 +$5 +1%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,004 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,155 +$345 +30%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65,827 +$66 +0%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 21 $134 +$514 +382%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $4,149 +$23 +1%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $597 +$1 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $4,414 +$4 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $2,875 +$3 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $12,576 −$12,576 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $9,571 −$9,571 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 21 $40,858 −$40,858 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10,226 +$2,557 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,660 +$340 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $18,492 +$19 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,532 +$167 +11%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 19 $354 +$140 +40%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,766 +$4 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,080 +$2 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $24,969 +$31 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,794 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $11,710 +$400 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $323 +$13 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $8 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $25 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $51 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $52 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $20 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $25 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $81 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $3 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $39 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $52 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $284 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $104 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $56 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $20 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $4 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $20 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $20 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $152 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $59 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $26 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $20 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $102 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $15 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $56 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $51 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $300 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,647.96 · official $16,647.96 (match) · 3500 history records