Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc971…54bc other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$584 (+31%) realized +$571 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate73%32W / 12L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$448
7 days+$509
14 days+$534
30 days+$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$388
sports 46% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +49.3% +35.1% 81% 69% +23.9%
≤30d 35 +25.7% +13.7% 71% 57% +21.4%
≤90d 44 +27.1% +15.0% 73% 61% +20.8%
all 44 +27.1% +15.0% 73% 61% +20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 61% +20.8%
10% +4.0% 52% +9.2%
15% -6.1% 41% -1.4%
20% -15.3% 27% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.76 per $1 lost it wins $7.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses32 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage51d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 92¢ 99¢ $129 $139 +$10 (+8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 23¢ 24¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $177 +$83 +47%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $354 +$75 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$60 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $268 +$75 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$148 +498%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $175 +$19 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $177 +$40 +23%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$8 -63%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$7 +134%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$20 +96%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 05 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Indonesia vs. Oman end in a draw? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 $0 -4%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Petrojet SC vs. El Gouna SC end in a draw? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 02 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-29? May 01 $1 $0 +27%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 $0 +40%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 +$2 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 23¢ $31 46m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $129 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 27¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $5 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 8¢ $6 21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $90 21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $87 22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $101 24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $105 24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $149 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $342 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $185 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 48¢ $57 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 79¢ $83 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 15¢ $9 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 17¢ $20 32h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $175 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $22 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 93¢ $45 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $33 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $99 2d
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 19¢ $5 2d
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 49¢ $13 2d
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 97¢ $20 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 60¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 60¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 58¢ $10 5d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 42¢ $5 5d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 53¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.75 · official $168.09 · 110 history records