Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc972…c7b8 sports 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-11%) realized −$162 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$146
14 days−$193
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$139
other 20% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -9.2% -17.8% 42% 38% -19.2%
≤30d 86 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 38% -21.5%
≤90d 86 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 38% -21.5%
all 86 -9.6% -18.2% 42% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 38% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 35% -29.0%
15% -33.2% 31% -35.9%
20% -39.7% 23% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 38¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 $0 -1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 20 $18 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 −$11 -50%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $23 +$25 +108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -35%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 +$14 +232%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$10 +100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $15 −$9 -60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $26 −$9 -34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -74%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $6 +$11 +204%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$32 +59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$15 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$22 +90%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$15 +77%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -39%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$9 -49%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 +$12 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$17 -66%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $18 +$3 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$1 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 −$8 -61%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 +$5 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$9 +171%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 +$13 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $11 11m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $25 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 36¢ $18 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $18 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $0 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $8 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $25 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 92¢ $23 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $6 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $23 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $14 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 5h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 5h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 17¢ $0 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $2 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.62 · official $9.62 (match) · 275 history records