Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
C9 0xc972…dcd9 politics 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,095 (+31%) realized +$6,002 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%279W / 167L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$744
14 days+$776
30 days+$1,512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$1,174
sports 26% +$1,870
other 16% +$2,291
world 15% −$42
crypto 5% −$202
tech 2% +$499
finance 1% +$144
culture 0% +$21
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +62.8% +47.3% 68% 43% +12.2%
≤30d 81 +90.4% +72.3% 65% 43% +11.0%
≤90d 282 +60.5% +45.2% 63% 49% +17.6%
all 446 +55.5% +40.7% 63% 49% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.7% 49% +16.5%
10% +27.3% 38% +5.4%
15% +15.0% 30% -4.8%
20% +3.7% 25% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late +61% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$9 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1,357
Realized+$6,002
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses279 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions27
Markets (closed)446 / 473
History coverage121d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 39¢ $369 $428 +$59 (+16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $259 $262 +$4 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $135 $166 +$31 (+23%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 36¢ 46¢ $74 $92 +$18 (+25%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 83¢ 88¢ $61 $65 +$4 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $37 $57 +$20 (+55%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup Match? No 74¢ 88¢ $42 $51 +$8 (+20%)
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+20%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? Yes 6¢ 66¢ $2 $20 +$19 (+1095%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 22¢ 18¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Trump say "Bond" in June? No 5¢ 26¢ $1 $8 +$6 (+448%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? No 32¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Siena Saints (W) Siena Saints 47¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? No 27¢ 21¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 37¢ 66¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 61¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 44¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 20 $36 +$6 +16%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Brazil vs Ha Jun 20 $58 +$58 +101%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $355 +$6 +2%
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $3 +$15 +459%
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $1 +$5 +501%
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Jun 20 $191 −$17 -9%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 19 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor Jun 19 $161 +$2 +1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 19 $30 +$8 +25%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI Jun 19 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $89 +$5 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$6 -74%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 19 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Germany vs Ivory Jun 19 $46 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 19 $96 +$30 +32%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIF Jun 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Vietnam" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$15 +41%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Trump say "Dog" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $51 +$46 +90%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $109 −$74 -68%
Will Trump praise Brett Kavanaugh by June 30? Jun 18 $40 +$17 +44%
Will Trump praise King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud by June 30? Jun 18 $104 +$31 +30%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $102 +$10 +10%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $36 −$33 -91%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +14%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $90 +$8 +9%
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $34 +$10 +31%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $18 +$55 +314%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $35 +$358 +1021%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 17 $1,055 +$216 +20%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Will the announcers say "Swing" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 15 $18 +$90 +516%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $107 +$31 +29%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $30 −$6 -21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $418 +$13 +3%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 03 $29 −$9 -32%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $176 +$8 +5%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $79 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 1m
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 6m
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 12m
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 17m
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 19m
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 20m
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY No 27¢ $1 23m
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY No 27¢ $1 23m
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA SELL No 92¢ $42 27m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Brazil vs Ha SELL No 85¢ $116 27m
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 5¢ $4 56m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA BUY No 78¢ $36 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Brazil vs Ha BUY No 41¢ $41 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Brazil vs Ha BUY No 41¢ $17 1h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World SELL No 90¢ $18 1h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World SELL No 94¢ $19 2h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World SELL No 95¢ $19 2h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World SELL No 93¢ $19 2h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World SELL No 91¢ $18 2h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World BUY No 74¢ $117 2h
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? SELL No 38¢ $19 2h
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? SELL No 32¢ $7 2h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 81¢ $284 2h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA SELL No 90¢ $4 2h
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3h
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,356.79 · official $1,356.79 (match) · 2131 history records