Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc974…b33b sports 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$427,638 (+20%) realized +$427,666 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%122W / 458L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,302per market
Trades / day67.4pace
Fees−$15,290est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$4,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$371,776
sports 49% −$80,701
world 0% +$4,727
politics 0% −$31
crypto 0% −$684
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -90.6% -91.5% 4% 4% -86.7%
≤30d 465 -62.2% -65.8% 17% 16% -43.7%
≤90d 580 -52.1% -56.7% 21% 21% -30.7%
all 580 -52.1% -56.7% 21% 21% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.7% 21% -30.7%
10% -60.8% 21% -37.4%
15% ← realistic here -64.6% 20% -43.4%
20% -68.1% 18% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$5,903) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,713 vs −$4,189 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4,235
Realized+$427,666
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses122 / 458
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$15,290
Open positions4
Markets (closed)580 / 288
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$7,302
Trades / day67.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $1,985 $2,060 +$74 (+4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $1,718 $1,693 −$25 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 8¢ 8¢ $436 $463 +$27 (+6%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $125 $20 −$106 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 15 $5,292 −$5,292 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Jun 15 $2,013 −$2,013 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $1,762 −$1,762 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-16.5) Jun 15 $2,288 −$2,288 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Jun 15 $753 −$753 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 15 $4,550 −$4,550 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 15 $2,604 −$2,604 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-02? Jun 15 $1,448 −$1,448 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 15 $378 −$378 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 15 $4,109 −$4,109 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $13,481 −$13,481 -100%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Denmark Jun 15 $2,123 −$2,123 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-11? Jun 15 $535 −$535 -100%
Madrid Open: Elmer Moeller vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $4,465 −$4,465 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Jun 15 $626 −$626 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Jun 15 $3,167 −$3,167 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 Jun 15 $4,407 −$4,407 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Jun 15 $3,659 −$3,659 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,553 −$2,553 -100%
Spread: Heat (-15.5) Jun 15 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-19? Jun 15 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 15 $10,562 −$10,619 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 15 $778 −$778 -100%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 15 $4,742 −$4,742 -100%
Santos FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $10,798 −$10,798 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 15 $2,409 −$2,409 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $10,493 −$10,493 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Jun 15 $10,376 −$10,376 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 15 $4,851 −$4,851 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Jun 15 $9,998 −$9,998 -100%
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5,176 −$5,176 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 15 $2,183 −$2,183 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5 Jun 15 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Jun 15 $7,507 −$7,507 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Jun 15 $1,596 −$1,596 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-19? Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Jun 15 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims) Jun 15 $4,987 −$4,987 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Sweden Jun 15 $3,227 −$3,227 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-19.5) Jun 15 $7,589 −$7,589 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Jun 15 $3,444 −$3,444 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,354 −$1,354 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5 Jun 15 $3,292 −$3,292 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Jun 15 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $14,687 −$14,687 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jun 15 $2,843 −$2,843 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $648 −$648 -100%
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds: O/U 145.5 Jun 15 $1,630 −$1,630 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $66 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,685 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $3,179 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $9,506 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $25 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $20 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 2¢ $109 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $436 5h
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 2¢ $21 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $82 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1,326 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $53 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1,326 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $13 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $64 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $7 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $36 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $11 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $13 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $23 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $4 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $133 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $77 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,235.08 · official $4,235.08 (match) · 3500 history records