Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc976…2948 sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%24W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 24% −$5
politics 20% −$1
crypto 9% −$2
economics 7% −$1
culture 6% −$2
tech 4% $0
world 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 173 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses24 / 149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage171d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 15 $42 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 11 $109 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $206 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $246 −$2 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 07 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 05 $142 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $38 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $38 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $43 25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $43 25d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 93¢ $42 37d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $42 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $48 99d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $48 99d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $43 99d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $43 100d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $37 100d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $38 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 101d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $43 101d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $44 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 101d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $44 101d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $44 101d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $48 101d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $48 101d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $41 101d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $42 102d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $46 102d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 102d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $44 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.82 · official $46.82 (match) · 729 history records