Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc97a…7bde other 96 markets active 23h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$250 (+5%) realized +$248 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$288
politics 23% +$59
other 21% −$58
sports 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.9% -1.5% 75% 50% +34.8%
≤30d 10 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 50% +22.0%
≤90d 55 -38.3% -44.1% 38% 24% -2.7%
all 55 -38.3% -44.1% 38% 24% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 24% -2.7%
10% -49.5% 16% -12.0%
15% -54.4% 11% -20.5%
20% -58.8% 9% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,119
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions33
Markets (closed)55 / 96
History coverage85d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $517 $527 +$9 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $110 $103 −$7 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+28%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 45¢ 22¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-51%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $49 +$52 +107%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $9 +$6 +68%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18 −$11 -63%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $53 +$2 +4%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $627 +$67 +11%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $18 −$14 -79%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $60 −$31 -51%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $1,066 +$81 +8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $144 +$11 +8%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $942 +$67 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 08 $8 +$1 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Apr 08 $17 +$2 +10%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +39%
Will Trump say "Moon" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026? Apr 06 $541 +$131 +24%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -72%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026? Apr 02 $5 +$3 +63%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 30 $22 −$4 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 22h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 28h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 31h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 32h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 32h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 32h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 32h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 32h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 32h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 32h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 33¢ $5 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 33h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 68¢ $5 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 50¢ $6 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 27¢ $5 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 22¢ $5 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 16¢ $5 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 27¢ $7 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 24¢ $5 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $22 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,118.56 · official $1,144.56 · 635 history records