Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc97c…669b other 32 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-26%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$105
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$32
crypto 28% −$62
sports 14% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -29.3% -36.0% 50% 40% -34.4%
≤30d 32 -33.7% -40.0% 47% 38% -35.3%
≤90d 32 -33.7% -40.0% 47% 38% -35.3%
all 32 -33.7% -40.0% 47% 38% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 38% -35.3%
10% -45.8% 28% -41.5%
15% -51.0% 22% -47.2%
20% -55.8% 9% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$8 -37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 16h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 39h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 41h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records