Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc97f…2da1 politics 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,473 (-1%) realized −$1,473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,350per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$29
14 days−$50
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$145
other 30% +$556
sports 17% −$2,024
world 2% −$42
economics 2% −$3
culture 2% −$5
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 +3.0% -6.8% 9% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 112 -9.3% -17.9% 8% 5% -10.9%
all 174 +2.0% -7.7% 22% 11% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 11% -10.1%
10% -16.5% 11% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 10% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,992) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$1,473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,350
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $317 $317 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $4,042 −$6 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 20 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $5,154 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,828 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $4,091 −$6 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $826 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,004 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $743 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,928 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 09 $2,527 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,094 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,675 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,336 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $67 +$65 +97%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,063 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $4,528 −$6 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,191 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,057 −$6 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $54 +$57 +105%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $79 +$58 +73%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,625 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $3,223 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $2,040 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $8,372 −$10 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $984 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $869 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 30m
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $625 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $626 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $341 25h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $341 25h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $337 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $421 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $338 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $421 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $520 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $521 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $429 4d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $429 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $919 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $921 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $814 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $816 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $826 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $961 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $963 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $791 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $792 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 7d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $740 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $884 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $885 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $743 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $743 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $966 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.74 · official $488.74 (match) · 613 history records