Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc984…237d other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+7%) realized +$51 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$30
other 47% +$11
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% -3.6%
≤30d 41 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% -3.6%
≤90d 41 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% -3.6%
all 41 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 44% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 44% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 44% -12.8%
15% -24.9% 41% -21.2%
20% -32.3% 37% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $64 $62 −$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $40 +$28 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$9 -86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +118%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $9 +$16 +176%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 $0 -21%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +123%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$28 -55%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +30%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 +$11 +134%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$17 +174%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 +$8 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $49 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 77¢ $10 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $10 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 30h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 44h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $89 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $90 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.98 · official $101.98 (match) · 97 history records