Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc984…ab6d sports 2039 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-3%) realized −$274 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%1219W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$768
7 days−$609
14 days−$411
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$503
other 14% +$35
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 814 -10.3% -18.9% 60% 53% -48.5%
≤30d 1496 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 67% -15.2%
≤90d 1715 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 64% -16.4%
all 1715 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 64% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 64% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 49% -24.4%
15% -17.9% 37% -31.7%
20% -25.9% 25% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$274
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1219 / 496
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions154
Markets (closed)1715 / 2039
History coverage50d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 154 History 1715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 32¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Arias/Poljak 40¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+42%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 52¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 37¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-05-31? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Tomas Barrios 21¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Arnaldi vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5 Under 40¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 21.5 Under 56¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Polona Hercog 41¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Bellucci/Kyrgios vs Quinn/Tien Bellucci/Kyrgios 50¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 63¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 64¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 71¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina 72¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 48¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Felix Balshaw 68¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 69¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 51¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Arnaldi vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 44¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 68¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 77¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 70¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 78¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Kilian Feldbausch 65¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Coleman Wong 51¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafi Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles: O/U 141.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mumbai City FC win on 2026-04-09? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Ningbo Rockets Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Yastremska vs. Sierra: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Zsombor Piros vs Tomas Barrios Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Lahore Qalandars Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
CEHL: Karlovy Vary vs. Vitkovice Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Charaeva vs Kudermetova Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
La Union vs. Gimnasia Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs MASQ (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Regatas vs. Gimnasia Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Shuai Zhang vs Eva Lys Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Aidan Mayo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ASC Oțelul Galați vs. FC Hermannstadt end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuiabá Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 4 Winne Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-03-29? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Naples: Matteo Martineau vs Michele Ribecai Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brasilia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Facundo Acosta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Rome: Federico Bondioli vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group B Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Li Tu Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 59¢ $1 5m
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 52¢ $1 9m
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Barrientos/Behar vs Balaji/Demoliner BUY Balaji/Demoliner 56¢ $1 13m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 47¢ $1 17m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $1 22m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 61¢ $1 27m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 27m
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Alexis Galarneau 65¢ $1 30m
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 84¢ $1 34m
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 49¢ $1 49m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 50m
Set 1 Winner: Fernandez vs Hardt BUY Hardt 77¢ $1 52m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 62¢ $1 1h
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Criollos de Caguas BUY Criollos de Caguas 74¢ $1 1h
Alexandrova vs. Potapova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 1h
Zverev vs. Kopriva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 71¢ $1 1h
Gill vs. Gaston: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Raquillet vs Manas BUY Manas 61¢ $1 1h
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 1h
Vekic vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
Tarvet vs. Safiullin: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 1h
Fery vs. Samuel: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 1h
Svitolina vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 1h
Norrie vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 1h
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Hanfmann BUY Fonseca 61¢ $1 1h
Dart vs. Boulter: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 1h
Nakashima vs. Fucsovics: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.78 · official $192.88 (match) · 3500 history records