Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc98f…3492 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,984 (-1%) realized −$1,983 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%32W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,039per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$88
politics 33% −$77
sports 14% −$1,850
culture 4% −$7
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$4
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +0.4% -9.2% 9% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -13.9% -22.1% 4% 2% -11.5%
all 150 -1.9% -11.3% 21% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 11% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 11% -19.2%
15% -27.5% 9% -27.0%
20% -34.6% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,524) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1,123
Realized−$1,983
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses32 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,039
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $673 $672 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $451 $451 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,425 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $996 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,043 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,901 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $662 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $911 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $47 +$63 +134%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,956 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $427 +$2 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $352 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $748 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $4,147 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,145 −$3 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $52 +$43 +83%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 19 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $3,943 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $4,258 −$6 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,345 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,301 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $4,731 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,578 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,180 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,355 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,589 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $964 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $673 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $729 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $730 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $805 34h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $806 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $451 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $995 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $996 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $800 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $802 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $755 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $756 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $614 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $615 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $660 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $662 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $664 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $665 8d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $57 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,180 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,091 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.49 · official $1,123.49 (match) · 445 history records