Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc98f…a13f sports 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$10,805 (+23%) realized +$5,251 · open +$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate57%95W / 73L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day1212.6pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6,627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,719
7 days+$5,251
14 days+$5,251
30 days+$5,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$2,841
other 20% +$2,761
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +11.9% +1.2% 57% 18% +0.9%
≤30d 168 +11.9% +1.2% 57% 18% +0.9%
≤90d 168 +11.9% +1.2% 57% 18% +0.9%
all 168 +11.9% +1.2% 57% 18% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1212.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 18% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 14% -8.7%
15% -17.3% 12% -17.5%
20% -25.4% 10% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1.7142645393987486% → late 25.514623202648913% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6,627
Realized+$5,251
Unrealized+$195
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses95 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions44
Markets (closed)168 / 201
History coverage3d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day1212.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 95¢ 94¢ $953 $945 −$8 (-1%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty New York Liberty 90¢ 98¢ $864 $936 +$72 (+8%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 93¢ 78¢ $1,014 $859 −$155 (-15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 77¢ 99¢ $659 $850 +$191 (+29%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 76¢ 99¢ $641 $834 +$193 (+30%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ 100¢ $529 $550 +$21 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 100¢ $344 $350 +$5 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 76¢ 86¢ $190 $214 +$24 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 73¢ 68¢ $182 $171 −$11 (-6%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 89¢ 94¢ $134 $141 +$8 (+6%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 80¢ 90¢ $68 $77 +$9 (+14%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Atlanta Dream 94¢ 94¢ $75 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 61¢ 94¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+53%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 75¢ 88¢ $49 $57 +$8 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 76¢ 32¢ $138 $57 −$81 (-59%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 69¢ 78¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+12%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ 3¢ $1 $39 +$38 (+2900%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 21¢ 16¢ $47 $37 −$10 (-21%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 36¢ 12¢ $89 $31 −$58 (-65%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 63¢ 50¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ 4¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+3400%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Chicago Cubs 74¢ 50¢ $37 $25 −$12 (-33%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Washington Mystics 5¢ 2¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Athletics 66¢ 62¢ $17 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 +$19 +325%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $559 +$41 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $978 +$51 +5%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 +$43 +394%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $392 +$8 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $724 +$183 +25%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $220 +$120 +54%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $483 +$62 +13%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $99 +$6 +6%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1,317 +$33 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,371 +$90 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 $0 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $182 +$43 +24%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $410 +$250 +61%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $478 +$356 +74%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $817 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $157 +$8 +5%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $473 −$4 -1%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $813 +$63 +8%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $315 +$5 +2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $177 +$3 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $37 +$163 +442%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $286 +$114 +40%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,363 +$137 +10%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,395 +$105 +8%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$67 +1056%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $679 −$229 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 2m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 0¢ $0 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,627.21 · official $6,627.21 (match) · 3500 history records