Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc990…9d1a
other · 100 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$19 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 65
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 3 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 46¢ 76¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $213 −$16 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $105 +$20 +19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $94 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $95 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $27 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $176 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $4 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $96 −$11 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $140 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $493 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $586 +$3 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $641 −$4 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $166 −$3 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $2 +$4 +167%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $19 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$2
sports 26% +$1
world 20% −$21
economics 12% −$5
politics 7% +$1
culture 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $89 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $108 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $108 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $15 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $95 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $12 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $82 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $94 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $55 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $39 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $29 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $25 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $25 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 25% 25% -8.6%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.5% 30% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 26 -0.9% -10.4% 27% 4% -10.1%
all 97 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.29 · official $3.07 · 419 history records