Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc990…ae15 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$12
politics 34% −$11
sports 8% −$38
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 131 -2.4% -11.7% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 127
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage130d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $137 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $275 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $262 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $277 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $403 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $462 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $164 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $166 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $259 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 4h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 11h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 14h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 17h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 17h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 38h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $139 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $139 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $123 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $123 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 27d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $141 27d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $141 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $136 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $136 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $163 28d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $163 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $128 29d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $128 29d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 402 history records