Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc998…88f7 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$993per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 5 -20.3% -27.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -41.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -46.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$993
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $805 −$9 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,507 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $999 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $251 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.96 · official $99.80 (match) · 120 history records