Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc998…f060 sports 839 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,504 (+20%) realized +$18,506 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%484W / 409L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$673
crypto 14% −$472
other 14% −$1,469
world 1% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -49.0% -53.9% 28% 21% -65.9%
≤30d 133 -48.2% -53.1% 29% 21% -64.9%
≤90d 160 -44.2% -49.5% 31% 23% -61.6%
all 893 -11.9% -20.3% 54% 35% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 35% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 25% -26.5%
15% -34.9% 18% -33.6%
20% -41.2% 12% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$70 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$18,506
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses484 / 409
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)893 / 839
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 893 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 66¢ 34¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? Jun 20 $160 −$229 -143%
League of Legends: DRX vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Jun 20 $520 −$520 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Jun 20 $239 −$241 -101%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-22? Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-25? Jun 20 $1 −$3 -305%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-22? Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 8AM ET Jun 20 $317 −$317 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $234 −$234 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-9.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Jun 20 $0 −$57 -99232%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on August 26 at 4PM ET? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
League of Legends: KT Rolster vs. T1 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Ducks vs. Flames Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. KT Rolster Jun 20 $429 −$429 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? Jun 20 $565 −$565 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 26 at 4 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Cardinals vs. Reds Jun 20 $0 −$558 -238287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Cubs vs. Angels Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) Jun 20 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-01-26? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1AM ET Jun 20 $472 −$472 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$573 -14290%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $0 −$62 -86740%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on August 31 at 4 Jun 20 $163 −$194 -119%
Al Hazem SC vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? Jun 20 $46 −$211 -458%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Spread: Heat (-2.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Astros vs. Orioles Jun 20 $333 −$333 -100%
Al Hazem SC vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $56 −$63 -112%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguars Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Bucks Jun 20 $30 −$408 -1358%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? Jun 20 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Jun 20 $596 −$549 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 45¢ $81 4m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $16 12m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $5 12m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $6 12m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $6 12m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $10 12m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $8 12m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 64¢ $6 12m
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions 64¢ $59 19m
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 66¢ $4 19m
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions 70¢ $3 20m
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions 74¢ $1 21m
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 58¢ $56 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $30 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $1 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $1 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $3 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $1 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $5 1h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 46¢ $4 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $160 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 100¢ $30 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 85¢ $77 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 85¢ $111 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $111 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $140 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $140 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $16 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 24¢ $16 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.39 (match) · 3500 history records