Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc999…600f politics 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$6
politics 31% −$8
sports 15% −$1
economics 9% +$1
culture 7% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 86 -8.6% -17.3% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage401d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $104 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $3 $0 -12%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $3 $0 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $1 $0 -20%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $1 $0 -8%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $1 $0 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $1 $0 -15%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -50%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $1 $0 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 32d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 33d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $51 49d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $51 107d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 110d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 113d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $50 118d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $50 122d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $49 133d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $49 136d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 144d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 144d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $51 149d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 154d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $51 155d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $51 157d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $50 158d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $50 160d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $50 161d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $50 163d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 164d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 164d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $50 165d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $50 167d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $50 169d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $50 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records